The 2015 season is finally supposed to be the year the Seattle Mariners qualified for the postseason. Not only are the Mariners aiming to to break a playoff drought that stands 14 years, they are desperately trying to have the cornerstone of the franchise reach the postseason.
While the team has scuffled at times with a 17-20 record, one constant has remained the same. Apart from a minor slip up against the Boston Red Sox on Saturday, Felix Hernandez has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the majors.
Hernandez has put together a brilliant 11-year career with the Mariners, posting a 131-93 record with a 3.05 ERA (3.15) FIP, over 2,000 strikeouts and a Cy Young Award. Nothing is ever guaranteed with how susceptible pitchers are to injury and the way they age, but Hernandez seems destined to end up in the Hall of Fame with a Mariners cap on some day.
Seattle has had to fight off baseless trade rumors for years and got Hernandez to commit long-term prior to the 2013 season (with a very memorable press conference), a gesture that meant a lot to the city. Hernandez is already one of the greatest to put on the Mariners uniform and will likely go down as one of the most significant athletes in Seattle history.
The obvious problem has been surrounding Hernandez with the right talent, particularly on the offensive side of things. Since Hernandez debuted in 2005, the Mariners have finished with a winning record just three times, none of which resulted in postseason berths.
Wins are not a great stat for judging a pitcher’s worth (with Hernandez being a prime example why), but it does sting a bit to think about how many the Mariners have cost King Felix.
The woeful 2010 team is a great example of this–Hernandez posted a 2.27 ERA en route to winning the AL Cy Young Award despite a record of 12-13. Seattle’s only above-average hitters were Russell Branyan and Ichiro, who posted OPS marks of .802 and .754 respectability.
All of Bill Bavasi’s tenure from 2003-2008 has to be considered a waste, as he set the franchise back years. It took Jack Zduriencik a few years after that to even get things headed in the right direction, at which point the Mariners had gotten nothing out of a decade of Hernandez.
So, the Mariners have absolutely squandered some incredible seasons by Hernandez. However, they may not have yet wasted his best years.
It’s easy to forget that Hernandez debuted as a teenager and is still just 29 years old. That means he shouldn’t quite be suffering any age-related decline just yet, and could somehow be even getting better.
Incredibly, Hernandez’s strikeout rate has increased and his walk rate has declined each of the last four years. That trend has the potential to continue this year, as he’s off to a 6-1 start with a 2.30 ERA (3.39 FIP) and has been dominant in six of his eight outings.
It’s not exactly early anymore, but there’s still hope for the team to turn things around in 2015. While this may be the Mariners’ best shot on paper, the window is at least open for a couple of more seasons.
The Mariners have wasted plenty of good years from King Felix, which makes the playoff drought hurt even more. However, Hernandez has plenty left in the tank and continues to pitch at the same elite level, leaving Seattle with a shot of finally getting him to October.
